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A KFF analysis projects average monthly premiums for stand-alone Medicare Part D plans will rise from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027. Beneficiaries may avoid the average increase by switching plans during open enrollment, which runs through Dec. 7; President Donald Trump has separately claimed his administration lowered drug prices.
Average monthly premiums for stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plans are projected to rise 50%, from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027, according to a KFF analysis. Beneficiaries can shop for a lower-cost option during open enrollment through Dec. 7, as President Donald Trump claims his administration has secured major reductions in medicine prices.
The projected increase applies to people enrolled in stand-alone Medicare drug plans, not to every person with Medicare drug coverage. KFF estimates that 10.4 million enrollees—76% of stand-alone plan members who do not receive low-income subsidies—will pay a higher monthly premium in 2027 if they stay with their current plan. That includes 4.1 million people now in zero-premium plans; KFF says no zero-premium stand-alone plans will be available next year.
One enrollee featured in the KFF Health News report, Robert Travis Scott of Abingdon, Virginia, received notice that his AARP-UnitedHealthcare plan would rise from $39.60 a month to $121.90. He said he found a Humana plan costing $19.30 a month with similar benefits. Scott estimated the switch would save him about $1,000 next year. His experience illustrates that a plan’s premium can change substantially, but an alternative may be available; individual costs and coverage depend on the medicines a person uses and the plan selected.
The analysis also found that beneficiaries with drug coverage through Medicare Advantage plans face a smaller projected premium change. They are expected to pay an average of $9 per month for drug coverage in 2027, an increase of less than $2. KFF reports nearly 25 million people are enrolled in stand-alone drug plans, while about 31 million receive drug coverage through Medicare Advantage.
How Plan Switching Could Limit Costs
The premium projection matters because people who remain in the same stand-alone plan could see their monthly bill climb, including some who currently pay no premium. Comparing plans during open enrollment may reduce that bill, but the lowest premium alone does not show what a person will pay overall. Drug coverage also has deductibles and cost-sharing, and the best fit depends on a beneficiary’s prescriptions and plan benefits.
KFF found that the average deductible for stand-alone plans is projected to rise from $540 in 2026 to $643 in 2027. For Medicare Advantage drug coverage, the average is projected to increase from $360 to $489. The analysis also says most beneficiaries with drug coverage will face coinsurance rather than copayments next year. Coinsurance is a percentage of a medicine’s price, so out-of-pocket costs can be less predictable than a fixed copayment.
The difference between plan premiums and drug prices is central to the political debate. Trump’s claims concern medicine prices negotiated by his administration, while KFF’s figures describe insurance premiums and other plan costs. A lower price for a particular medicine would not, by itself, establish that every enrollee’s premiums or total costs have fallen.
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KFF points to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ decision in July to end a three-year pilot that subsidized stand-alone drug plans. The subsidies were paid in 2025 and 2026. KFF says ending the program after two years may contribute to higher premiums in 2027; that is a possible explanation, not a confirmed account of every plan’s pricing decision. CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz has described the subsidy program as an insurance industry bailout.
The KFF estimate differs from a CMS projection of a $1 increase in the national average premium, from $35 to $36, based on September 2026 enrollment. KFF said CMS did not explain its calculation methods and suggested the agency may have assumed beneficiaries would switch to lower-cost plans. The two estimates may use different assumptions, so they should not be treated as directly interchangeable without further detail.
Trump made his claim about drug prices at an Ohio campaign rally on Oct. 28, ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. He said his administration had achieved lower prices through a “favored nations” approach. The KFF report notes that what people pay varies widely based on their medicines and insurance. The supplied material does not provide a separate evaluation of the administration’s price-negotiation claims.
“With some plans increasing premiums substantially, the stakes are higher this year for people with Medicare stand-alone drug coverage if they sit on the sidelines during open enrollment.”
— Juliette Cubanski, KFF vice president and director of the Program on Medicare Policy
The estimates describe projected averages, not the exact bill every beneficiary will receive. Individual premiums vary by plan, and a person’s total costs also depend on prescriptions, deductibles, and cost-sharing. KFF’s analysis does not establish how much each enrollee could save by switching or whether a lower-premium plan will cover a person’s medicines on comparable terms.
The reason for the projected increase is also not fully settled. KFF identifies the early end of the subsidy pilot as one possible factor, while CMS’s separate estimate is much smaller. CMS did not immediately respond to KFF’s request for comment, according to the report. The supplied material also does not independently verify Trump’s claim that U.S. drug prices are now the lowest in the world.
Compare Coverage Before Dec. 7
Medicare beneficiaries can review available plans during the open enrollment period ending Dec. 7. The KFF report recommends checking alternatives rather than assuming a current plan remains the most affordable. A useful comparison includes monthly premiums, whether a plan covers a person’s medicines, and the applicable deductible and coinsurance—not just the advertised premium.
The next clear measure will be the premiums and coverage people face when 2027 plans take effect. CMS has not, in the information provided, explained how its projection differs from KFF’s estimate. Further agency comment or updated enrollment data could clarify the discrepancy and how much plan switching changes the average people actually pay.
Key Questions
KFF projects the average monthly premium will increase from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027, a 50% rise. Individual plan prices differ, so the average is not a prediction of every enrollee’s bill.
Can beneficiaries avoid the projected premium increase?
Some may reduce their premium by switching plans during open enrollment, which runs through Dec. 7. They should compare medicine coverage, deductibles, and cost-sharing as well as the monthly premium.
Will Medicare Advantage drug coverage see the same increase?
No. KFF projects an average of $9 per month for drug coverage within Medicare Advantage plans in 2027, an increase of less than $2. The estimate concerns the drug portion of the overall plan premium.
Why does KFF’s estimate differ from CMS’s?
KFF projects a $17 increase in the average stand-alone premium, while CMS projected a $1 increase in the national average. KFF said CMS did not explain its calculation methods and that it may have assumed people would move to cheaper plans; the difference remains unresolved.
Source: kffhealthnews.org
